Outer Space Vehicle Launch

INFO 526 - Summer 2024 - Final Project

Derek Rice

Question:

“What country will dominate the future of space launch?”

The Dataset

• Analysis used the “yearly number of objects launched into outer space” dataset.
• The source of the dataset is the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
• The dataset is available within the tidytuesday package.
• The dataset provides the number of objects launched into space from 1957 to 2023 as a function of country.
• The dataset starts with the Russian launch of Sputnik, maps out the space race between Russia and the United States, includes the global growth of spacing faring nations, and the recent exponential growth in launch activity.

Analysis Approach:

• Step 1 - data cleanup
• Step 2 - plot and map dataset to understand the history space launch activity
• Step 3 - fit a model to the data for the fifteen most active nations
• Step 4 - use the model to predict future space launch activity
• Step 5 - plot and map future space launch activity
• Step 6 - tell the story of the future of space launch

Conclusions

• The original question was “What country will dominate the future of space launch?”
• The inital dataset 1957 to 2023 tells the story of Russian early leadership, the American race to catch up during the Apollo years, the evolving global nature of space launch, and the recent exponential growth in the industry.
• The predicted model suggests American, Chinese, Indian, and United Kingdon launch efforts will grow significantly while Russia will declide over the coming decades.
• The analysis indicates the first space faring nation will be the United States accounting for over 80% of global space launch activity.